Sunday, July 8, 2007

'Sensex to cross 50,000 mark by 2020'

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Sensex_to_cross_50000_mark_by_2020/articleshow/2186378.cms
MUMBAI: Sensex hitting 50,000 is right now only a serious prediction for Morgan Stanley and a laughable target for others but believe it or not Brazil's 50 share benchmark index 'Bovespa' went past 50,000 mark in May this year.
Sensex crossing 15,000 was also unimaginable two years back but today it is a reality and very close to what former Sebi whole time member Madhukar uttered, predicting that Sensex will cross 16,000 mark also.
After acheiving this record landmark analyst feel that Sensex will cross 25,000 mark by 2010, which big bull Rakesh Jhunjhunwala predicted in 2005 only.
Another brave statement from world's leading investment bank Morgan Stanley predicts Sensex to cross 50,000 mark 12 years from now in 2020. Morgan Stanley's prediction came in February only and they still hold on to what they predicted earlier.
"You just need to factor in India's GDP growth of 8 per cent along with an inflation of 5-6 per cent and the cost of manufacturing and assuming Sensex stocks will grow by 17-18 per cent till 2020, then it will work out to more than what Morgan Stanley has predicted," Angel Broking's CMD, Dinesh Thakkar said.
Also, the Sensex crossing 50,000 mark is in the realm of possibility with Brazil's Sao Paulo Stock Exchange's benchmark index Bovespa hitting 50,000 mark first time ever on May 3 and closing around 55,000 mark last week.
The landmark on the Indian bourses that will now be keenly awaited is NSE Nifty's 5,000 mark which is just 614 points from yesterday's close at 4,384 points.
Sensex with yesterday's close at 14,964 is yet to record its first ever close above 15,000 mark, and when it does it will join an exclusive club of world bourses that currently trade above 15,000.
Besides Bovespa, on Friday Japanese index Nikkei closed at 18,140 and Hong Kong's index Hang Seng closed at 22,000 level.
There are 50 companies listed in the blue-chip Bovespa stock index as compared to 30 companies on the Sensex.
Brazil is a mirror image of India in terms of natural resources and also it has largest number of people living in poverty in all of Latin America.
Still, Brazil's arrival as a global economic power is linked to its vast natural resources like iron ore, offshore oil fields and the country's extensive use of ethanol.
Brazil has also become self-sufficient in energy, ending decades of foreign oil imports.
Like India, Brazil's economy is linked to agriculture, and it's the world's largest exporter of coffee, sugar, cattle, orange juice, and has surpassed the US as the biggest exporter of soybeans in January 2006.
"Sensex is in exuberance right now and it will continue for next few months," Thakkar says.
Meanwhile analysts believe that Bovespa may hit 60,000 mark by end of 2007.                                                              

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